Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

49-55

STL

53-52

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

22,852 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
59.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.5%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.4pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

STL

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +17.4pp · implied 41.9%

Book	CIN	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-162	+124★	+17.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.0± 1.1high

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 3.5high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

STL

.708

OPS

◀

.720

.695

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.45

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.16

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · STL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
CIN	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5
STL	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.278	5	2	2	1	1	0	2
S. Steer1B	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.234	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.207	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. LoweDH	.256	5	0	3	2	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.257	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
N. MarteRF	.193	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Hayes3B	.148	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
E. Arroyo2B	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.244	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.253	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		38	5	10	5	2	3	13

Player

.278

.238

.234

.207

.256

.257

.193

.256

.148

.244

.244

.253

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	6.0	3	2	2	4	4	100
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
T. AntoneRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	23
B. BurkeRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. GarciaRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	22
Team	10.0	6	3	2	5	8	176

Player

A. AbbottSP

6.0

100

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

10.0

176

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.253	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.286	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.244	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.287	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.238	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
J. FerminLF	.253	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
N. VelazquezLF	.209	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. PagesC	.207	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. ChurchCF	.225	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. TorresLF	.213	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	6	3	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	6.0	6	2	2	1	9	102
L. GastelumRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
M. SvansonRP	0.1	2	3	2	0	0	10
J. BruihlRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	9
Team	10.0	10	5	4	3	13	161

Team

CIN

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.