Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 2, 2026

FINAL+5CIN

CIN

40-46

MIL

53-32

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

41,390 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 6.5 · +0.5

MIL no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.3%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.5pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+178DraftKings

edge +1.5pp · implied 34.4%

MIL

no live price

Book	CIN	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+178★	-219	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.1± 1.1high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.5high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Cooper PrattMIL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

MIL

.705

OPS

.720

▶

.737

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.05

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.48

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 7 · MIL 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	1	0	0	4	0	0	1	1	0	7
MIL	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.272	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.257	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
J. BledayLF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
E. SuarezDH	.207	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
N. LoweDH	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.200	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. Arroyo2B	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TrevinoC	.232	4	1	3	3	1	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.181	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
S. Steer1B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.195	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	11	7	3	3	13

Player

.272

.257

.237

.207

.253

.200

.257

.232

.181

.235

.195

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	4	89
S. MollRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	24
T. AntoneRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	4	2	2	2	7	129

Player

6.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. ChourioLF	.295	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.259	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.265	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
S. FrelickRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.202	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MisiorowskiSP	5.0	5	5	1	0	10	82
G. AndersonRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	20
J. KoenigRP	0.1	1	0	0	2	0	21
J. KuhnelRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	21
G. StallingsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	11	7	3	3	13	163

Team

CIN

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.