Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at CIN?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1CLE

CLE

55-53

CIN

49-56

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

16,866 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

59.1%

open 60.0% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
41.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.1%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at CIN?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.8pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+122DraftKings

edge +22.8pp · implied 42.3%

CIN

no live price

Book	CLE	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+122★	-159	+22.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

134

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Hunter GreeneCIN
7.3± 5.0low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.2± 1.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.1± 1.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
1.9± 3.2high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.9± 1.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.3high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.7± 1.0high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.3± 4.7low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 3.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

CIN

.677

OPS

.721

▶

.705

.309

OBP

.319

.308

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.14

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.20

4.46

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · CIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6
CIN	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.247	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Ramirez3B	.239	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.283	3	2	1	1	0	0	0
T. Bazzana2B	.241	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
B. RocchioSS	.268	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.211	3	1	1	4	1	1	1
A. MartinezLF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. BaileyC	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.204	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	9	6	1	3	5

Player

.247

.239

.283

.241

.268

.211

.224

.230

.204

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	3.2	7	4	4	1	2	84
T. HerrinRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	12
F. AlemanRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	24
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
H. GaddisRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	21
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	11	5	5	2	10	174

Player

3.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

174

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.280	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
S. Stewart1B	.256	3	1	2	3	1	2	0
J. BledayLF	.230	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.204	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.260	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.248	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.264	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
E. Arroyo2B	.244	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
T. FriedlCF	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Johnson2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	5	11	5	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	5.0	5	5	1	2	4	89
B. BurkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
S. MollRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	27
C. PettyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	9	6	2	3	5	146

Team

CLE

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.