Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CIN?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

51-41

CIN

41-49

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

31,204 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
38.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.7%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.4%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CIN?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low

Hits

Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.2high
Sal StewartCIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.5high
Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

CIN

.702

OPS

.720

.705

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.309

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · CIN 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.241	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.255	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. Harper1B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Bohm3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. SosaLF	.218	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.325	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
J. CrawfordCF	.258	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.305	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	8	4	1	2	9

Player

.241

.255

.266

.222

.218

.200

.248

.325

.258

.305

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	7.0	4	1	1	0	14	104
O. KerkeringRP	0.2	0	0	0	3	0	33
J. BowlanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	20
Team	9.0	5	1	1	3	18	163

Player

Z. WheelerSP

7.0

104

O. KerkeringRP

0.2

J. BowlanRP

0.1

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.270	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.207	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
N. LoweDH	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Steer1B	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. FriedlCF	.174	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Johnson2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	3	18

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	6.0	5	3	3	0	8	95
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
C. FergusonRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	15
J. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	17
S. MollRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	8	4	4	2	9	166

Team

PHI

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

CIN vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers