Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 19, 2026

FINAL+3CIN

CIN

45-53

COL

40-61

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

20,158 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

43.6%

open 45.1% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.7%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.9%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.42

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+112

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

45.1%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+52.4pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +52.4pp · implied 0.0%

COL

no live price

Book	CIN	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	—★	+1640	+52.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.0± 1.1high

Hits

Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

COL

.708

OPS

.719

▶

.743

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.324

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.80

4.41

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.46

1.41

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.51

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 9 · COL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	5	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9
COL	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.282	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.253	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
J. BledayLF	.243	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. Steer1B	.246	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.249	5	1	1	3	1	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.210	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. StephensonC	.247	4	2	3	3	2	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.175	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. MyersCF	.260	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
E. Arroyo2B	.236	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.138	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	10	9	4	5	6

Player

.282

.253

.243

.246

.249

.210

.247

.175

.260

.236

.138

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	6.0	4	3	3	0	7	94
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
S. MollRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	22
Team	9.0	8	6	6	0	9	142

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.302	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.276	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.257	4	3	3	5	3	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.299	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Castro2B	.263	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
K. Karros3B	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.296	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. FreemanRF	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Julien2B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	8	6	4	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	2.1	7	8	8	4	3	71
T. GordonRP	5.2	3	1	1	1	2	66
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	10	9	9	5	6	149

Team

CIN

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.