Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 3, 2026

FINAL+3BAL

BAL

41-48

CIN

40-47

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

22,157 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

CIN no-vig %

47.5%

open 46.8% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.3%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.73

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+101

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.0pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

CIN

★ best

+139DraftKings

edge +16.0pp · implied 39.3%

Book	BAL	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-183	+139★	+16.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.4± 3.0high

Hits

Jackson HollidayBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.3low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.2± 3.4low
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.0± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.5high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

CIN

.712

OPS

.720

.705

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 3 · CIN 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.226	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
A. RutschmanC	.252	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. WardLF	.251	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.257	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
D. BeaversRF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Alexander3B	.303	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Holliday2B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	3	4	2	1	5	7

Player

.226

.252

.251

.247

.257

.222

.223

.303

.190

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	5.0	2	0	0	5	4	93
R. GarciaRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	4	0	0	6	7	139

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.273	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Steer1B	.236	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.204	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.202	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Arroyo2B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FriedlCF	.180	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		31	0	4	0	0	6	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	5.0	3	3	2	5	6	93
C. FergusonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
C. PettyRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	17
J. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	4	3	2	5	7	136

Team

BAL

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CIN vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.