Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+3PIT

PIT

56-56

CIN

52-58

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

27,616 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CIN no-vig %

47.3%

open 48.0% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.1%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.3pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

CIN

★ best

+1060DraftKings

edge +35.3pp · implied 13.6%

Book	PIT	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-121	+1060★	+35.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 0.7high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.749

OPS

◀

.720

.707

.335

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.07

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

4.30

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.44

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · CIN 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.306	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.257	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.268	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. ValdezRF	.268	2	0	0	1	0	2	0
N. Gonzales3B	.315	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.203	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.241	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.175	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
B. CookCF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	0	7	3

Player

.306

.257

.268

.268

.315

.203

.241

.211

.175

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	5.0	2	1	1	1	5	69
C. MlodzinskiRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	4	47
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	3	1	1	2	10	127

Player

B. AshcraftSP

5.0

C. MlodzinskiRP

3.0

G. SotoRP

1.0

Team

9.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. BledayLF	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.195	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.201	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. TrevinoC	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. FriedlCF	.165	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.191	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		30	1	3	1	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	5.0	3	3	3	5	1	98
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
S. MollRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20
J. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	6	4	4	7	3	172

Team

PIT

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.