Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at MIL?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+2MIL

CIN

39-46

MIL

53-31

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

30,068 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIL no-vig %

60.0%

open 58.3% · +1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.8%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at MIL?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+64.1pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

MIL

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +64.1pp · implied 0.0%

Book	CIN	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+134	—★	+64.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Elly De La CruzCIN
2.1± 2.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.1± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
1.9± 3.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.7± 1.0high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Robert GasserMIL
2.8± 3.0low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

MIL

.705

OPS

.720

▶

.737

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.05

4.43

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.48

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CIN 2 · MIL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.274	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
S. Stewart1B	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Steer1B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.206	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.230	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.200	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
I. Johnson2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.196	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Arroyo2B	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	8	2	1	1	10

Player

.274

.257

.236

.206

.230

.200

.000

.196

.268

.236

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	5.0	5	2	2	5	3	96
T. AntoneRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
B. BurkeRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	26
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
E. PaganRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	8.0	8	4	4	7	4	161

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

1.0

0.1

Team

8.0

161

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChourioLF	.296	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
B. Turang2B	.259	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. ContrerasC	.296	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.268	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
A. Vaughn1B	.339	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
G. MitchellCF	.264	4	1	4	1	0	0	0
G. SanchezC	.215	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. PrattSS	.195	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. PerkinsCF	.159	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	8	3	0	7	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. DrohanSP	5.2	6	2	2	1	7	78
A. AshbyRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20
A. UribeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	8	2	2	1	10	114

Team

CIN

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.