Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at CIN?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+4CHC

CHC

54-42

CIN

43-52

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

29,200 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

46.0%

open 45.8% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

28.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
37.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.20

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at CIN?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.7pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

-197DraftKings

edge +8.7pp · implied 62.3%

CIN

no live price

Book	CHC	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-197★	+149	+8.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
1.2± 1.2high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

CIN

.749

OPS

◀

.719

.708

.338

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.41

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 8 · CIN 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	2	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	0	8
CIN	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.291	3	2	1	1	0	2	0
S. SuzukiRF	.268	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.241	5	2	3	4	1	0	0
C. KellyC	.273	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.239	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. SwansonSS	.211	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. AlcantaraDH	.235	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.246	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		35	8	9	8	1	5	7

Player

.291

.268

.241

.273

.239

.233

.220

.211

.235

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoydSP	6.1	6	4	4	1	3	92
G. HollowellRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	25
C. ThielbarRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	12
J. WebbRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	9	4	4	1	6	138

Player

6.1

1.2

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.274	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.256	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Steer1B	.247	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.242	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.208	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
T. StephensonC	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.195	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Arroyo2B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Johnson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	9	4	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	4.0	4	4	4	3	3	79
C. PettyRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	25
S. MollRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	15
P. JohnsonRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	8
R. LowderSP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	30
Team	9.0	9	8	8	5	7	157

Team

CHC

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CIN vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.