St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 17, 2026

FINAL+1STL

STL

51-45

ARI

49-48

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

29,931 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
48.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.2pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+105DraftKings

edge +6.2pp · implied 45.8%

ARI

no live price

Book	STL	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+105★	-136	+6.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high
Kyle LeahySTL
4.4± 2.4high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.1high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.8± 1.4high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

ARI

.689

OPS

.719

▶

.705

.314

OBP

.318

.313

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · ARI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	5
ARI	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.262	4	1	2	1	1	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.246	4	1	0	1	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.273	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.294	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. NootbaarLF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.245	2	0	1	3	0	1	0
N. ChurchCF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.172	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. TorresLF	.194	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.212	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	8	5	1	5	5

Player

.262

.246

.273

.294

.259

.245

.232

.259

.172

.194

.212

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.1	6	2	1	1	5	94
G. SorianoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	14
L. GastelumRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	18
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	8	4	3	3	8	142

Player

6.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.255	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.240	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. CarrollRF	.252	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
G. MorenoC	.304	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.205	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.207	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
I. Vargas1B	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.227	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.186	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	2	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	5.0	4	3	1	2	3	87
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15
K. GinkelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
P. SewaldRP	0.1	1	1	0	1	0	17
B. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	8	5	2	5	5	159

Team

STL

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.