St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 2, 2026

FINAL+6STL

STL

45-39

115

ATL

50-35

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

34,524 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.9pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+228DraftKings

edge +18.9pp · implied 28.5%

ATL

no live price

Book	STL	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+228★	-325	+18.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.7± 2.1high

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 1.2high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.8± 1.5high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

ATL

.691

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.314

OBP

.318

.315

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.91

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 11 · ATL 5 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	3	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	1	11
ATL	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.261	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.252	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.274	5	2	1	1	1	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.291	4	2	2	4	1	1	0
L. NootbaarLF	.300	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.249	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
N. ChurchCF	.254	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CrooksC	.164	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.234	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.224	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.266	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		40	11	15	11	3	3	4

Player

.261

.252

.274

.291

.300

.249

.254

.214

.164

.234

.224

.266

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	0.2	5	5	5	2	1	34
J. BruihlRP	2.2	1	0	0	0	2	40
R. FernandezRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	12
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	8	5	5	3	6	139

Player

0.2

2.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.255	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.273	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Olson1B	.270	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.272	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
D. SmithDH	.278	4	1	1	3	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.222	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	8	5	0	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. WaldrepSP	5.1	5	3	3	1	4	76
T. KinleyRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	0	11
D. LeeRP	0.1	3	3	3	0	0	20
I. HamiltonRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	0	27
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	24
Team	9.0	15	11	11	3	4	158

Team

STL

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.