Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHC?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+3STL

STL

47-39

CHC

49-40

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,872 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

59.8%

open 58.3% · +1.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.3%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHC?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.1pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

STL

no live price

CHC

★ best

+200DraftKings

edge +24.1pp · implied 31.3%

Book	STL	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-273	+200★	+24.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.7± 2.1high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.9± 2.8high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron CivaleCHC
3.0± 2.7medium
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CHC

.691

OPS

.720

▶

.752

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.11

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 3 · CHC 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.266	4	1	3	1	1	1	1
I. HerreraDH	.259	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.291	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. Burleson1B	.279	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. FerminLF	.271	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. PagesC	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. ChurchCF	.255	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
Team		32	3	8	3	1	4	13

Player

.266

.259

.291

.279

.249

.271

.286

.216

.255

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.0	3	0	0	2	6	77
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
R. StanekRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
Team	9.0	5	0	0	4	12	131

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.289	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
A. Bregman3B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
I. HappLF	.221	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.250	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
M. AmayaC	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Ramirez2B	.255	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	5	0	0	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	4.2	4	2	2	3	8	86
T. FergusonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
R. RolisonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	16
T. ThorntonRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	26
C. ThielbarRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	13	156

Team

STL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHC vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.