Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 3, 2026

FINAL+16STL

STL

46-39

171

CHC

49-39

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,440 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 0.0 · +10.5

CHC no-vig %

53.3%

open 54.2% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
56.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.0pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

STL

no live price

CHC

★ best

+288DraftKings

edge +32.0pp · implied 24.2%

Book	STL	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-416	+288★	+32.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CHC

.689

OPS

.719

▶

.749

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.09

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.09

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 17 · CHC 1 (by 16)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	3	3	5	3	2	1	0	0	17
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.260	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.258	4	3	3	2	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.290	4	3	1	0	0	1	2
N. VelazquezLF	.286	3	1	0	2	0	2	0
A. Burleson1B	.276	5	1	2	4	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.253	4	2	2	4	1	0	1
J. FerminLF	.271	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.246	5	3	3	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.257	5	2	2	3	1	0	1
J. CrooksC	.164	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.245	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		43	17	17	17	3	4	7

Player

.260

.258

.290

.286

.276

.253

.271

.246

.257

.164

.222

.245

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	5.2	5	0	0	1	2	102
M. RajcicRP	2.1	2	1	1	0	3	34
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	6	149

Player

A. PallanteSP

5.2

102

M. RajcicRP

2.1

R. StanekRP

1.0

Team

9.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.287	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.243	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.271	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.220	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.259	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	7	1	0	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	3.2	9	10	10	3	3	91
B. WilsonRP	3.1	8	7	7	1	4	72
G. HollowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	17	17	17	4	7	191

Team

STL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHC vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.