Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+1STL

MIA

44-40

STL

43-38

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

37,779 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

STL no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIA

no live price

STL

no live price

Book	MIA	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+104	-125	+0.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

STL

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.689

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.14

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIA 1 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
STL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.196	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. LopezSS	.332	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Stowers1B	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.298	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.231	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. Pauley3B	.176	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.257	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.266	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.188	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	4	1	0	3	9

Player

.196

.332

.226

.298

.217

.214

.231

.176

.000

.257

.266

.188

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	7.1	6	2	2	0	1	97
C. GibsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	8.0	6	2	2	0	2	104

Player

T. PhillipsRP

7.1

C. GibsonRP

0.2

Team

8.0

104

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.265	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.244	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.234	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchCF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.220	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	6	2	1	0	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.0	2	1	1	3	5	87
J. RomeroRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	17
R. StanekRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	9	141

Team

MIA

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.