Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+3STL

ATL

54-40

STL

50-44

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

29,122 attended

Line movement

141 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.5%

Close no-vig

50.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

STL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 3.5high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.9high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

STL

.733

OPS

◀

.720

.695

.315

OBP

.318

.315

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.16

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

ATL 1 · STL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
STL	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Olson1B	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. BaldwinC	.254	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. DubonLF	.269	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. Riley3B	.209	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. WhiteRF	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.133	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MateoSS	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.264	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.296	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	6	1	1	2	11

Player

.300

.267

.268

.254

.269

.209

.221

.133

.238

.264

.296

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	5.0	5	4	4	1	3	85
O. MurphySP	3.0	0	0	0	0	3	47
Team	8.0	5	4	4	1	6	132

Player

R. LopezRP

5.0

O. MurphySP

3.0

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.294	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.265	2	2	1	3	1	1	0
M. WinnSS	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.237	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. ChurchCF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	4	5	4	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	6.0	4	0	0	1	6	71
L. GastelumRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	11	117

Team

ATL

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.