Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+2COL

46-65

COL

43-67

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

39,317 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 10.5 · +0.5

COL no-vig %

50.0%

open 47.8% · +2.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.4%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.6%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.4%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+37.6pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

★ best

+431DraftKings

edge +37.6pp · implied 17.7%

COL

no live price

Book	KC	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+431★	-710	+37.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Gabriel HughesCOL
4.7± 3.5low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.711

OPS

.720

▶

.747

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.324

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

4.85

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.52

1.43

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

7.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

KC 1 · COL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
COL	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.235	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.230	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PerezDH	.214	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.067	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	.251	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	6	1	1	1	4

Player

.235

.230

.251

.214

.262

.242

.292

.237

.067

.251

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	6.0	5	3	1	0	7	99
N. PearsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
E. McGeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	8.0	5	3	1	0	8	111

Player

M. WachaSP

6.0

N. PearsonRP

1.0

E. McGeeRP

1.0

Team

8.0

111

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. Rumfield1B	.293	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.266	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. FreemanRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.283	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. DoyleCF	.211	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.196	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.296	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	5	2	0	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SuganoSP	6.2	5	1	1	0	2	83
A. SenzatelaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	9
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	13
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	4	116

Team

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.