Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SEA?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+2MIN

MIN

56-55

SEA

53-58

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

43,489 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SEA no-vig %

63.0%

open 62.2% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.04

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SEA?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.2pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+249DraftKings

edge +27.2pp · implied 26.9%

SEA

no live price

Book	MIN	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+249★	-350	+27.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

SEA

.726

OPS

◀

.720

.687

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.78

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · SEA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5
SEA	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.293	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.242	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.216	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. RodenRF	.205	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Lee3B	.244	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.259	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
T. GraySS	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. KreidlerSS	.243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	7	5	3	2	8

Player

.283

.293

.241

.242

.216

.205

.244

.259

.229

.243

.242

.234

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	5.0	4	3	3	2	10	101
K. FunderburkRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	19
T. NanceRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. MorrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	25
Team	9.0	4	3	3	4	14	162

Player

Z. MatthewsSP

5.0

101

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.261	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.280	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
D. CanzoneDH	.261	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Naylor1B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. RaleighC	.164	3	0	1	2	0	1	0
We. Wilson3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. EmersonSS	.191	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. RoblesRF	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.177	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	4	3	1	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MillerSP	5.1	3	2	2	2	3	87
J. FerrerRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
E. BazardoRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	3	23
M. RuckerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	5	5	2	8	138

Team

MIN

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.