Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+4MIL

MIL

59-34

STL

48-44

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

27,028 attended

Line movement

53 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.6high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.8high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.7± 1.1high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Luis LaraMIL
0.7± 1.5medium
Cooper PrattMIL
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

STL

.736

OPS

◀

.719

.689

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.314

5.00

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

3.48

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.14

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 8 · STL 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	8
STL	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MitchellCF	.274	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. ChourioLF	.284	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
B. Turang2B	.269	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.281	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.268	4	2	2	3	1	1	2
A. Vaughn1B	.319	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.240	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
C. PrattSS	.258	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
J. OrtizSS	.223	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	8	11	8	2	3	8

Player

.274

.284

.269

.281

.268

.319

.240

.258

.223

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HendersonSP	5.1	3	3	3	1	4	76
C. PatrickRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	23
A. AshbyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
A. UribeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
Team	9.0	5	4	4	3	7	142

Player

5.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.267	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.249	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Burleson1B	.278	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.294	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
L. NootbaarLF	.263	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.197	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. ChurchCF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	5	4	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	5.0	8	6	6	2	2	97
L. GastelumRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19
G. GraceffoRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	35
M. SvansonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
Team	9.0	11	8	8	3	8	165

Team

MIL

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.