Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+8MIL

MIL

58-33

102

STL

47-43

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

20,399 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.3%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.9%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 1.2high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.9high
Jake BauersMIL
1.9± 1.8high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Cooper PrattMIL
0.7± 1.0high
Luis LaraMIL
0.7± 1.5medium

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

STL

.737

OPS

◀

.720

.691

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.314

5.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

3.48

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.17

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 10 · STL 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	1	0	2	0	7	0	0	10
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.241	5	0	0	1	0	0	2
L. LaraRF	.250	4	1	1	2	0	1	0
B. Turang2B	.267	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.331	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
J. Bauers1B	.268	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
G. SanchezC	.221	3	2	1	2	0	2	1
S. FrelickRF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.217	4	2	2	2	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.224	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.272	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.286	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		38	10	11	10	1	7	6

Player

.241

.250

.267

.331

.268

.221

.237

.217

.224

.272

.286

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	7.2	4	2	2	1	4	94
C. YohoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	4	2	2	1	5	104

Player

R. GasserSP

7.2

C. YohoRP

1.1

Team

9.0

104

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.254	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.292	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.269	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchCF	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. PagesC	.218	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.158	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	4	2	1	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. DobbinsSP	5.0	4	3	3	3	4	92
J. ShusterRP	1.1	5	7	7	3	2	52
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13
B. TorresLF	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	18
Team	9.0	11	10	10	7	6	175

Team

MIL

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.