Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

55-40

STL

50-45

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

30,234 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.5 · -1.0

STL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.7pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

STL

★ best

-124DraftKings

edge +2.7pp · implied 52.2%

Book	ATL	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-103	-124★	+2.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 116 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high

Hits

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.6± 1.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

STL

.733

OPS

◀

.719

.689

.315

OBP

.318

.314

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.14

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 4 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	4
STL	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.254	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
O. Albies2B	.267	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Olson1B	.267	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.296	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.265	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.263	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.207	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. JarvisSS	.300	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. HicklenRF	.500	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.226	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
Team		34	4	7	2	0	6	6

Player

.254

.267

.267

.296

.265

.263

.207

.300

.500

.226

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. YoungRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	25
J. RitchieSP	4.1	1	1	1	2	2	61
D. DoddRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	11
D. FuentesRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	12
D. LeeRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	23
T. KinleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	4	3	3	5	9	147

Player

0.2

4.1

0.1

0.2

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.294	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.273	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
L. NootbaarLF	.260	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
M. WinnSS	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. ChurchCF	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.259	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.164	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. Jordan3B	.237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	4	3	0	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	4.0	2	2	2	4	4	84
J. BruihlRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	1	34
G. GraceffoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14
R. StanekRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	25
Team	9.0	7	4	3	6	6	176

Team

ATL

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.