New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces
NY
11-5
LV
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Las Vegas Aces Thursday at 7/30 - 10:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7. LV is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
LV
Home
46
FG %
48
Season series
Series starts 6/23
NY@LVupcomingNY@LVtodayLV@NYupcomingScouting report
NY @ LV
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -5.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-5
Record
11-4
#2
Conf rank
#2
+6.0
Pt diff
+3.4
L1
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
7-3
84.0
Power score
78.2
#2
Power rank
#3
58.2
Sched ahead
68.1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
- Jackie YoungLV16.3± 10.2medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
LV
46.1%
FG%
44.6
▶48.3%
34.8%
3PT %
33.4
▶35.6%
88.6
PPG
85.7
▶89.9
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.5
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7