Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LV

16-13

99104

20-8

WNBAThu, Jul 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLV -4.5

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

Jackie Young

G · #0

30.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 6:21

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	37	26	10-20	1-1	5-8	-2	11	1
J. JonesC · #35	28	8	2-11	0-4	4-4	-10	7	5
R. AllenG · #9	27	13	5-6	3-4	—	0	1	0
S. IonescuG · #20	29	15	4-7	1-4	6-7	-12	4	5
P. AstierG · #18	21	19	8-12	1-3	2-2	-1	1	4
Bench
H. XuC · #21	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	+2	1	1
R. GardnerG · #7	15	6	2-4	—	2-2	-4	5	3
M. JohannesG · #23	8	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	18	9	3-5	1-3	2-2	+3	4	1
Team		99	35-68	8-22	21-25		34	20
DNP: A. Maley, R. Carrera, B. Laney-Hamilton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	11	6	2-3	2-3	—	+1	1	2
N. SmithF · #3	19	7	2-3	—	3-4	-13	4	1
A. WilsonC · #22	36	33	11-22	1-4	10-11	+8	10	6
C. GrayG · #12	34	16	6-10	4-6	—	+3	3	4
J. YoungG · #0	36	29	7-11	3-5	12-12	+8	2	9
Bench
B. TurnerF · #21	21	4	2-3	—	—	+9	3	1
J. LoydG · #24	27	6	2-8	2-7	—	+8	2	0
D. EvansG · #11	17	3	1-4	1-3	—	+1	1	2
Team		104	33-64	13-28	25-27		26	25
DNP: T. Latson, J. Pissott, M. Yamamoto

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

35-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-64

FG %

8-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-28

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 24

NY87@

LV76

Jul 31

NY99@

LV104today

Aug 9

LV@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

182.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+14940%

LV-18265%

27· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -4.5↗SpreadBet LV -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+2.0 since open

Total

182.5

+4.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat NY 104-99. J. Young paced them with 29 PTS, 2 REB, 9 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 17

LVstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 20 REB · 22 AST

GS 81

Bench(3)

13 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 6:21 · 84-85

+14pp→ 48% WP

NaLyssa Smith · shooting foul

LV4th Quarter · 3:45 · 87-92

+13pp→ 85% WP

Marine Fauthoux · misses 35-foot three point step back jumpshot

LV4th Quarter · 55.5 · 93-97

+13pp→ 93% WP

Jonquel Jones · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	26	18	27	28	99
LV	27	25	26	26	104

Period scoring

NY won 2 · LV won 2

Allen 8

Young 15

Ionescu 7

Young 7

Astier 8

Wilson 18

Stewart 11

Young 7

Shooting comparison

51%

35-68

52%

33-64

36%

8-22

3PT

46%

13-28

84%

21-25

93%

25-27

Play-by-play · 389 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 99·LV 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 99·LV 104
Q4·0.3
Pauline Astier makes 2-foot two point shot
NY 99·LV 104
Q4·6.0
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 97·LV 104
Q4·6.0
Brianna Turner enters the game for Dana Evans
·
NY 97·LV 103
Q4·6.0
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 97·LV 103
Q4·6.0
Rebekah Gardner personal foul
NY 97·LV 102
Q4·7.7
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Marine Fauthoux
·
NY 97·LV 102
Q4·7.7
Dana Evans enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
NY 97·LV 102
Q4·7.7
Aces Full timeout
NY 97·LV 102
Q4·7.7
Jonquel Jones makes 11-foot two point shot
NY 97·LV 102
Q4·9.3
Jonquel Jones offensive rebound
NY 95·LV 102
Q4·11.2
Sabrina Ionescu misses 31-foot three point jumper
NY 95·LV 102
+0.5pp
Q4·14.4
Liberty Full timeout
NY 95·LV 102
Q4·14.4
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 95·LV 102
Q4·14.4
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 95·LV 101
Q4·14.4
Sabrina Ionescu personal foul
NY 95·LV 100
+1pp
Q4·15.1
Pauline Astier bad pass turnover (Jackie Young steals)
·
NY 95·LV 100
+2pp
Q4·15.7
Marine Fauthoux enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 95·LV 100
Q4·15.7
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Dana Evans
·
NY 95·LV 100
Q4·15.7
Liberty Full timeout
NY 95·LV 100
Q4·15.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 95·LV 100
−2pp
Q4·15.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 95·LV 99
+0.7pp
Q4·15.7
Jonquel Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 95·LV 98
+6pp
Q4·20.8
Aces Reset Timeout
NY 95·LV 98
Q4·20.8
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 95·LV 98
+7pp
Q4·20.8
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 94·LV 98
−12pp
Q4·20.8
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Marine Fauthoux
·
NY 93·LV 98
Q4·20.8
Dana Evans enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
NY 93·LV 98
Q4·20.8
(00:20.8) [Liberty] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
NY 93·LV 98
+10pp

Betting line

LV -4.5·O/U 182.5·NY +149/LV -182

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off New York Liberty, 104–99.

LV -4.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 182.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

eFG%

shooting

57.4%

61.7%

TOV%

ball control

13.2%

11.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.8%

10.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.9%

39.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.8%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
75.1%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.0%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
71.2%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.34

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-157

Close price

-210

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

64.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.6pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

+350DraftKings

edge +5.6pp · implied 20.9%

no live price

Book	NY	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+350★	-520	+5.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.5± 8.1high
Breanna StewartNY
21.2± 7.8high
Sabrina IonescuNY
19.2± 6.4high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.4± 3.9high
Breanna StewartNY
9.0± 2.8high
Jonquel JonesNY
8.9± 2.6high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.4high
Jackie YoungLV
6.7± 3.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
5.0± 2.2high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.1high
Breanna StewartNY
1.7± 0.9high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.6high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.3± 0.9high
Chelsea GrayLV
1.3± 1.2high
Jewell LoydLV
1.3± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop