Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ATL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+4ATL

STL

44-39

ATL

50-34

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

27,361 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.1% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.19

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ATL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.7pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+137DraftKings

edge +7.7pp · implied 39.7%

ATL

no live price

Book	STL	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+137★	-179	+7.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.7± 2.1high

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.8high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.0± 2.3high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.9± 1.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.7± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.5± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

ATL

.691

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.314

OBP

.318

.315

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.91

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.35

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

STL 1 · ATL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ATL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.252	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.288	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. NootbaarLF	.293	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrooksC	.151	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.220	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	2	1	0	1	11

Player

.259

.252

.275

.288

.293

.242

.255

.222

.151

.262

.308

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.0	3	2	2	1	3	87
M. RajcicRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	24
J. BruihlRP	0.1	1	2	1	1	0	14
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	10
Team	8.0	7	5	4	4	5	135

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.255	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.276	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
M. Olson1B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.293	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. DubonLF	.268	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
D. SmithDH	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.207	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. YastrzemskiLF	.221	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. MateoSS	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	7	5	1	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	5.0	2	1	1	1	6	69
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
D. FuentesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	2	1	1	1	11	121

Team

STL

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.