Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 30, 2026

FINAL+1CHW

NYY

61-48

CHW

57-51

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

29,384 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

50.9%

open 50.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.3%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.22

CLV pp

Open price

-114

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.9%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.3pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

CHW

★ best

-110DraftKings

edge +4.3pp · implied 50.0%

Book	NYY	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-110★	+4.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.1± 2.4high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Heliot RamosNYY
1.0± 1.1high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.8± 2.8high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.6± 1.3high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
David SandlinCHW
3.3± 4.5low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

CHW

.722

OPS

.720

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.316

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.77

3.33

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

NYY 1 · CHW 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.216	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. DominguezRF	.232	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
P. Goldschmidt1B	.254	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. JonesCF	.230	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.224	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
A. VolpeSS	.248	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.162	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannLF	.203	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	1	6	1	0	4	12

Player

.216

.269

.232

.254

.230

.224

.248

.208

.162

.203

.239

.234

.245

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	7.0	3	0	0	3	4	106
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
A. ChivilliRP	1.1	2	1	0	0	3	27
F. CruzRP	1.1	1	1	0	2	2	20
Team	10.2	6	2	0	6	11	171

Player

R. WeathersSP

7.0

106

B. HeadrickRP

1.0

A. ChivilliRP

1.1

F. CruzRP

1.1

Team

10.2

171

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.274	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
M. Murakami1B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
M. Vargas3B	.239	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. GrichukDH	.272	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.217	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. PereiraRF	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MontgomeryRF	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.186	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. AntonacciLF	.283	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.271	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
A. BenintendiDH	.243	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	2	6	2	0	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	6.0	3	0	0	2	10	91
S. NewcombRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	25
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
C. MurphyRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	0	8
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
Team	11.0	6	1	0	4	12	150

Team

NYY

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.