Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ARI?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 19, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

STL

51-47

ARI

51-48

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

28,069 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.95

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

46.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at ARI?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.8pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

STL

no live price

ARI

★ best

+432DraftKings

edge +32.8pp · implied 17.7%

Book	STL	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	-710	+432★	+32.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high
Kyle LeahySTL
4.4± 2.4high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.1high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.8± 1.4high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

ARI

.689

OPS

.719

▶

.705

.314

OBP

.318

.313

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

STL 7 · ARI 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
STL	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	7
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.262	6	1	1	1	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.247	6	1	3	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.292	5	1	1	1	0	1	2
N. VelazquezLF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Burleson1B	.280	5	1	3	2	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.243	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. FerminLF	.262	3	1	2	0	0	2	0
L. NootbaarLF	.257	1	1	0	0	0	4	0
B. Jordan3B	.259	5	1	3	3	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.191	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.209	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchCF	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		41	7	13	7	0	8	7

Player

.262

.247

.292

.233

.280

.243

.262

.257

.259

.191

.209

.226

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	5.1	5	3	3	2	3	88
R. StanekRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	18
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	21
L. GastelumRP	1.1	1	1	0	0	2	20
Team	9.1	10	8	7	4	7	163

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

Team

9.1

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.258	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.238	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.304	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
M. KeplerLF	.213	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
T. Locklear1B	.333	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. Arenado3B	.244	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.195	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.252	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.184	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	10	8	2	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RodriguezSP	2.2	7	5	5	2	3	68
D. JamesonRP	2.0	1	2	2	3	2	42
P. AbnerRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	1	46
T. ClarkeRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	15
R. ThompsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	14
J. MorilloRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	12
Team	10.0	13	7	7	8	7	197

Team

STL

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.