Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 29, 2026

FINAL+4KC

46-63

MIN

54-55

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

18,728 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.3% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
61.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.8pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

★ best

+167DraftKings

edge +2.8pp · implied 35.2%

MIN

no live price

Book	KC	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+167★	-223	+2.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.7± 2.6high
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 3.4high

Hits

Royce LewisMIN
1.2± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
0.9± 1.1high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.1± 1.6high
Salvador PerezKC
1.8± 1.6high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.6± 1.8high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.4± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIN

.711

OPS

.719

▶

.721

.313

OBP

.318

.316

4.15

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.65

4.81

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.63

1.42

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.38

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · MIN 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	4
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.237	5	1	1	1	0	0	3
L. ThomasCF	.229	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.251	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. PerezDH	.214	5	1	2	0	0	0	3
M. Massey2B	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	.257	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.264	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TolbertSS	.324	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
S. MarteRF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	4	12	4	1	2	8

Player

.237

.229

.251

.214

.270

.257

.238

.264

.324

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DobnakSP	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	101
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	4	117

Player

R. DobnakSP

7.0

101

D. Lynch IVRP

1.0

S. CruzRP

1.0

Team

9.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.288	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lee3B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.244	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodenRF	.189	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerSS	.246	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.245	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	1	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	6.0	8	4	4	0	4	93
K. RojasRP	3.0	4	0	0	2	4	52
Team	9.0	12	4	4	2	8	145

Team

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.