Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 17, 2026

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

49-49

CHC

54-43

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,855 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

CHC no-vig %

55.3%

open 56.3% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIN

no live price

CHC

no live price

Book	MIN	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+125	-151	+1.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CHC

.726

OPS

.719

▶

.749

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.71

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.09

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.09

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · CHC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.289	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
R. JeffersC	.291	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
J. BellDH	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RodenRF	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.262	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
T. GraySS	.232	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.248	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. KreidlerSS	.260	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		33	5	7	5	1	3	10

Player

.289

.291

.248

.239

.216

.249

.188

.262

.232

.248

.260

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	5.1	5	2	2	2	7	88
T. NanceRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	25
T. RogersRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MorrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
Team	9.0	6	2	2	4	9	151

Player

5.1

1.1

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.288	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
S. SuzukiRF	.269	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
I. HappLF	.221	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Hoerner2B	.235	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	6	1	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	6.0	5	4	3	1	6	91
D. PomeranzRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	21
G. HollowellRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
R. RolisonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
T. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	7	5	4	3	10	142

Team

MIN

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.