Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NYY?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 3, 2026

FINAL+3NYY

MIN

42-47

NYY

49-38

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

45,104 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

NYY no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NYY?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.9pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+233DraftKings

edge +19.9pp · implied 28.2%

NYY

no live price

Book	MIN	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+233★	-323	+19.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.8± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.1± 3.3low

Hits

Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.0± 0.9high
Jasson DominguezNYY
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.9± 2.2high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.6high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.6± 1.4high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

NYY

.725

OPS

.720

.723

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.311

4.70

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

4.60

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.30

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

MIN 2 · NYY 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
NYY	1	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.287	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Lee3B	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.244	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. BellDH	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Lewis3B	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. CaratiniC	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. GraySS	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Keaschall2B	.251	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	1	2	14

Player

.287

.248

.244

.241

.212

.239

.269

.226

.251

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ParedesSP	4.0	4	3	3	2	2	81
K. FunderburkRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
E. OrzeRP	2.0	2	2	2	1	0	28
Team	8.0	6	5	5	3	4	130

Player

M. ParedesSP

4.0

K. FunderburkRP

2.0

E. OrzeRP

2.0

Team

8.0

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.238	3	2	2	2	1	0	1
B. Rice1B	.270	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. DominguezRF	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.213	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. CaballeroSS	.247	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.151	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	5	6	5	2	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. ColeSP	5.0	5	2	2	0	7	88
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
P. BlackburnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
F. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	31
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	14	158

Team

MIN

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYY vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.