Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+3CLE

MIN

49-53

CLE

54-48

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

19,714 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIN

no live price

CLE

no live price

Book	MIN	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+115	-149	+1.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Gabriel AriasCLE
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.7± 1.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high

RBIs

Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CLE

.726

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.71

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.76

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIN 2 · CLE 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
CLE	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BuxtonCF	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.287	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. BellDH	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. CaratiniC	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.241	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. KreidlerSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.291	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	6	1	1	1	9

Player

.241

.275

.287

.251

.216

.236

.241

.260

.241

.291

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RojasRP	2.1	1	2	2	2	2	47
M. ParedesSP	3.0	6	2	2	1	0	49
T. RogersRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	28
J. AndersonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	8.0	9	5	5	4	3	132

Player

2.1

3.0

1.1

1.1

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.239	3	1	1	1	0	2	0
B. RocchioSS	.274	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.288	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.181	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.191	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Bazzana2B	.248	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
G. Arias3B	.243	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.280	2	1	0	1	0	1	0
P. HalpinCF	.216	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.209	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. WatsonRF	.239	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	5	9	5	0	4	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	5.2	4	2	1	0	6	88
C. HoldermanRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	8
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	17
H. GaddisRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	6	2	1	1	9	141

Team

MIN

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.