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Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins
LAD
LAD
47-27
PregameWed, 7:40 PM EDT
MIN
MIN
35-40
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shohei Ohtani
SP · #17
6-2
W-L
1.06
ERA
0.84
WHIP
73
K
67.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@PIT-6.2 IP3 ER6 K
@ARIW(6-2)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsCOLW(5-2)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Home starter
Connor Prielipp
SP · #61
2-4
W-L
5.26
ERA
1.35
WHIP
51
K
49.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-6.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsKCL(2-4)4.1 IP2 ER7 K
vsCHWW(2-3)6.0 IP4 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/22
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shohei OhtaniLAD6.7± 3.2low
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.4± 3.0low
- Joe RyanMIN6.3± 2.9medium
Hits
- Byron BuxtonMIN1.4± 1.1high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.1± 0.7high
- Josh BellMIN1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Byron BuxtonMIN3.1± 2.5high
- Kody ClemensMIN2.1± 1.9high
- Josh BellMIN1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Josh BellMIN1.0± 1.1high
- Kyle TuckerLAD0.8± 1.1high
- Ryan WardLAD0.8± 1.5medium
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.3± 3.6low
- Eric LauerLAD3.0± 2.7low
- Connor PrielippMIN2.9± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
MIN
.785
OPS
◀
.717
.722
.344
OBP
◀
.319
.318
5.28
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.72
3.32
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.78
1.08
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.38
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
