Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NYY?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+7MIN

MIN

43-47

114

NYY

49-39

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

40,156 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.8%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.18

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+136

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

40.6%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at NYY?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

131

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.1± 1.0high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.4± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

NYY

.726

OPS

.719

.721

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.71

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.28

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.18

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 11 · NYY 4 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	3	2	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	11
NYY	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.292	3	2	2	1	1	2	0
B. BuxtonCF	.269	3	1	1	2	0	1	2
K. Clemens1B	.248	4	2	2	3	1	1	1
J. BellDH	.247	5	2	3	3	2	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.212	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. KreidlerSS	.257	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.251	4	2	1	1	1	0	0
A. JacksonC	.300	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. MartinRF	.241	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	11	11	11	6	5	10

Player

.292

.269

.248

.247

.212

.244

.257

.251

.300

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	4.2	3	4	4	4	5	79
T. AdamsRP	1.0	3	0	0	1	1	19
T. RogersRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	12
A. MorrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
M. RayaRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	35
Team	9.0	7	4	4	6	9	150

Player

4.2

1.0

0.2

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.236	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Rice1B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BellingerLF	.251	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. DominguezRF	.223	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
A. VolpeSS	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.223	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
R. McMahon3B	.209	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. SchuemannLF	.231	2	1	2	2	1	2	0
A. SanchezC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.248	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.150	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	7	4	2	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BeckSP	3.2	5	5	5	2	3	87
T. HillRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	21
J. BirdRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	15
R. YarbroughRP	1.2	1	1	1	1	2	35
C. DovalRP	1.0	3	4	0	0	2	27
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	11	11	7	5	10	199

Team

MIN

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYY vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYY vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.