Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+4CHC

MIN

49-50

CHC

55-43

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,508 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 0.0 · +9.0

CHC no-vig %

56.3%

open 57.3% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+58.8pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

CHC

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +58.8pp · implied 0.0%

Book	MIN	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+135	—★	+58.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CHC

.726

OPS

.719

▶

.749

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.71

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.09

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.09

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

MIN 2 · CHC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
CHC	1	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.292	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lee3B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.243	4	2	2	2	2	0	2
R. KreidlerSS	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RodenRF	.235	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	8	2	2	1	7

Player

.245

.292

.248

.240

.249

.243

.254

.263

.286

.235

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	5.0	7	5	5	3	6	94
M. ParedesSP	2.0	3	1	1	1	4	40
K. RojasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	8.0	11	6	6	4	11	152

Player

T. BradleySP

5.0

M. ParedesSP

2.0

K. RojasRP

1.0

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.284	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. SuzukiRF	.272	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.239	4	2	1	1	1	1	3
A. Bregman3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HappLF	.219	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Hoerner2B	.243	4	1	4	1	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.267	3	0	2	2	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.209	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.230	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
Team		35	6	11	6	1	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoydSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	4	91
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	15
T. ThorntonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
J. WebbRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	2	2	1	7	133

Team

MIN

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.