Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 23, 2026

FINAL+2MIN

MIN

51-53

CLE

54-50

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

27,354 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

55.9%

open 54.2% · +1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.9%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.70

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-141

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIN

no live price

CLE

no live price

Book	MIN	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+122	-160	+1.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.2± 1.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.7± 1.6high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CLE

.726

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.311

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 3 · CLE 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3
CLE	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Lee3B	.251	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BuxtonCF	.274	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
R. JeffersC	.284	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
J. BellDH	.247	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
K. Clemens1B	.239	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.213	3	2	0	0	0	2	0
A. MartinRF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.261	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
R. KreidlerSS	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.294	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. RodenRF	.214	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		41	3	6	3	0	4	14

Player

.251

.274

.284

.247

.239

.213

.239

.261

.233

.294

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	7.0	2	1	1	3	5	109
A. MorrisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	22
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
J. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	12.0	3	1	1	7	10	191

Player

T. BradleySP

7.0

109

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

12.0

191

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.248	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. DeLauterRF	.284	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. RocchioSS	.271	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Bazzana2B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Hoskins1B	.177	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Manzardo1B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. BaileyC	.241	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
P. HalpinCF	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Arias3B	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.206	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	1	3	1	1	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	7.0	2	0	0	0	11	97
H. GaddisRP	0.1	0	1	1	2	1	16
C. SmithRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	22
C. HoldermanRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	17
Team	12.0	6	3	2	4	14	173

Team

MIN

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.