Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+2MIN

CLE

47-45

MIN

45-47

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

17,813 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.8± 2.7high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.9± 2.2high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high
Steven KwanCLE
1.6± 1.0high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.6± 1.4high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

MIN

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.725

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.60

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

CLE 1 · MIN 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. DeLauterRF	.276	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Hoskins1B	.180	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. KwanLF	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.218	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	3	1	1	1	13

Player

.244

.233

.276

.222

.180

.273

.214

.209

.218

.210

.218

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	6	2	0	3	7	94
F. AlemanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
M. FestaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
Team	8.0	10	3	1	3	8	135

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.248	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
B. Lee3B	.249	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. BellDH	.251	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
V. CaratiniC	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.248	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.264	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.255	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.289	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	10	3	0	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	7.0	3	1	1	0	10	101
A. MorrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
T. RogersRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	17
Y. GomezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
Team	9.0	3	1	1	1	13	134

Team

CLE

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.