Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

COL

32-50

MIN

39-44

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

27,317 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

MIN no-vig %

59.8%

open 60.0% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
71.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
72.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.6%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.71

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-174

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

COL

no live price

MIN

★ best

-177DraftKings

edge +9.7pp · implied 61.1%

Book	COL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+146	-177★	+9.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Dean KremerMIN
5.4± 2.6low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.8± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

MIN

.743

OPS

◀

.719

.726

.324

OBP

◀

.318

4.80

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.71

5.46

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.62

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.38

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

COL 8 · MIN 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	8
MIN	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	1	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.303	5	2	3	2	1	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.275	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.240	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.288	3	0	2	1	0	2	0
W. Castro2B	.280	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. JohnstonRF	.314	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.250	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. TovarSS	.208	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.223	4	2	1	1	0	1	1
K. Karros3B	.252	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.231	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. SenzatelaRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HergetRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.277	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		40	8	11	8	2	4	8

Player

.303

.275

.240

.288

.280

.314

.250

.208

.223

.252

.231

.000

.000

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SuganoSP	5.0	8	7	7	1	2	85
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. MejiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
J. BrebbiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	22
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	20
J. HergetRP	0.0	1	1	0	1	0	3
Team	9.0	14	9	8	2	4	153

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.280	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.276	5	2	3	2	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.241	4	2	1	2	1	1	0
J. BellDH	.244	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.237	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.217	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.240	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. GraySS	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.289	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.245	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		40	9	14	9	2	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	7.0	3	2	2	3	7	99
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	20
E. OrzeRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	0	14
A. BandaRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	11
A. MorrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	10.0	11	8	8	4	8	150

Team

COL

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.