Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+9CLE

MIN

49-52

413

CLE

53-48

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

22,501 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.6% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+101

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.6%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.6pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+1320DraftKings

edge +29.6pp · implied 12.8%

CLE

no live price

Book	MIN	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+1320★	+109	+29.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Gabriel AriasCLE
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.7± 1.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high

RBIs

Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CLE

.726

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.71

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.76

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIN 4 · CLE 13 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4
CLE	3	3	1	1	1	1	3	0	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.288	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
B. BuxtonCF	.275	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.237	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BellDH	.251	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.218	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
V. CaratiniC	.240	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.252	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. RodenRF	.190	2	1	0	1	0	1	0
R. KreidlerSS	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.244	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. JacksonC	.309	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	0	3	9

Player

.288

.275

.237

.251

.218

.240

.252

.190

.246

.244

.309

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	4.0	10	8	8	0	3	78
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	16
T. NanceRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	2	36
W. GoRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	2	24
A. JacksonC	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Team	8.0	19	13	13	2	7	165

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

165

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.238	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. Bazzana2B	.246	5	2	3	1	1	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.286	5	0	4	3	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.271	5	1	1	2	1	0	3
R. Hoskins1B	.182	5	2	2	2	2	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.211	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. FryRF	.194	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.239	5	2	4	2	1	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.222	5	3	3	3	2	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.211	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		43	13	19	13	7	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	6.0	6	2	2	1	5	95
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	14
M. FestaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	24
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	10	4	4	3	9	152

Team

MIN

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.