Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+3CLE

CLE

48-46

MIN

46-48

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

22,221 attended

Line movement

48 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
48.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Gabriel AriasCLE
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.7± 1.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.7± 1.4high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

MIN

.680

OPS

.719

▶

.726

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.71

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.62

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.38

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 5 · MIN 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	5
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.245	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.272	4	0	1	2	0	0	3
C. DeLauterRF	.279	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. WatsonRF	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.214	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. SchneemannCF	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.213	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
S. KwanLF	.220	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
D. FryRF	.203	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	6	5	3	4	9

Player

.245

.272

.279

.216

.215

.214

.212

.213

.220

.203

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	7.0	3	2	2	1	11	103
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	3	2	2	1	14	126

Player

G. WilliamsSP

7.0

103

H. GaddisRP

1.0

C. SmithRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Lee3B	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. BellDH	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.216	4	2	2	1	1	0	2
A. RodenRF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.228	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.296	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	3	2	1	1	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	5.0	3	1	1	1	5	74
K. RojasRP	2.0	2	3	3	3	3	47
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
W. GoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18
Team	9.0	6	5	5	4	9	149

Team

CLE

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.