Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at MIN?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 8, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

CLE

47-46

MIN

46-47

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

14,901 attended

Line movement

41 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
48.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+108

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

45.9%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at MIN?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

MIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.8± 2.7high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.9± 2.2high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.4high
Steven KwanCLE
1.6± 1.0high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.6± 1.4high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

MIN

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.725

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.92

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.60

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.37

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

CLE 5 · MIN 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	5
MIN	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FryRF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.279	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
B. RocchioSS	.272	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.181	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
T. Bazzana2B	.246	3	0	1	0	0	2	2
G. Arias3B	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.288	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.222	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. KwanLF	.221	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	5	8	5	2	6	13

Player

.205

.279

.272

.181

.246

.213

.219

.288

.222

.221

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	3.2	6	3	3	1	4	67
C. HoldermanRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	8
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	0	2	2	2	0	18
E. SabrowskiRP	0.0	0	0	0	3	0	14
H. GaddisRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	18
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
M. FestaRP	0.2	3	1	1	1	1	31
Team	8.2	11	6	6	8	7	185

Player

3.2

1.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

185

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.252	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.255	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.250	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.210	4	1	0	1	0	1	0
V. CaratiniC	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.257	2	1	1	1	0	2	1
A. RodenRF	.400	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.258	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
A. MartinRF	.248	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.314	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	11	6	0	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	5.0	4	3	3	2	6	83
T. AdamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
E. OrzeRP	0.1	0	2	2	2	1	16
T. RogersRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	2	15
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	20
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
Team	9.0	8	5	5	6	13	173

Team

CLE

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIN vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.