Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

COL

33-51

MIN

40-45

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

20,277 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

MIN no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
71.5%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
72.7%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.2%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.0pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

COL

no live price

MIN

★ best

-173DraftKings

edge +10.0pp · implied 60.6%

Book	COL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+143	-173★	+10.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.8± 2.7high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Connor PrielippMIN
5.5± 3.7low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.9± 2.0high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.8± 1.2high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.2± 1.6high
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.4high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.1± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

MIN

.741

OPS

◀

.720

.725

.323

OBP

◀

.318

4.77

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.70

5.50

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.60

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.37

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

COL 2 · MIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
MIN	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.273	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
T. FreemanRF	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.294	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.268	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.251	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. JohnstonRF	.315	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
B. FulfordDH	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.304	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	2	0	1	14

Player

.273

.276

.242

.294

.268

.251

.315

.214

.209

.268

.304

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	6.0	5	2	1	0	0	82
S. HalvorsenRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	0	15
B. BernardinoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	8.0	8	3	2	0	1	116

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.288	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.242	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.213	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lee3B	.248	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerSS	.290	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. MartinRF	.244	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.318	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	8	2	2	0	1

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	6.0	6	2	2	0	10	93
A. MorrisRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
A. BandaRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	14
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	7	2	2	1	14	126

Team

COL

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIN vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.