Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHC?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 19, 2026

FINAL+9CHC

MIN

49-51

110

CHC

56-43

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

37,205 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 0.0 · +7.5

CHC no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.5% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.5%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.46

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

39.5%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHC?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Dean KremerMIN
5.4± 2.6low

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 1.4high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.7high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CHC

.726

OPS

.719

▶

.749

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.71

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.09

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.09

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

MIN 1 · CHC 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
CHC	2	1	4	3	0	0	0	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.245	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.288	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BellDH	.249	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.217	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.241	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Lee3B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerSS	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.309	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.232	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RodenRF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	8	1	0	3	4

Player

.245

.288

.249

.217

.240

.241

.263

.249

.254

.309

.232

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	3.0	9	10	8	3	4	87
T. AdamsRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	45
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
W. GoRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	23
Team	8.0	12	10	8	6	9	169

Player

3.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

169

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.284	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.273	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
M. Busch1B	.244	5	2	3	1	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.239	4	2	2	2	1	1	0
I. HappLF	.217	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Hoerner2B	.245	5	1	2	4	0	0	2
P. Ramirez2B	.281	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.269	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeanCF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ConfortoDH	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	10	12	9	1	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	7.0	6	0	0	1	4	99
P. MatonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	23
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
Team	9.0	8	1	1	3	4	142

Team

MIN

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHC vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.