Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Athletics vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+3MIN

ATH

44-61

811

MIN

53-54

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

19,701 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

MIN no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
67.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+66.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

MIN

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +66.7pp · implied 0.0%

Book	ATH	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+1540	—★	+66.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 1.7medium
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high
Royce LewisMIN
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

MIN

.722

OPS

.720

.726

.321

OBP

.318

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.71

5.42

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.62

1.50

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.38

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

ATH 8 · MIN 11 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	8
MIN	3	3	0	1	0	1	1	2	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.278	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.264	3	1	1	3	1	1	1
J. HeimC	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.251	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. White3B	.323	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.244	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.247	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.198	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. Walton2B	.176	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
C. CortesRF	.269	1	0	0	2	0	0	0
Team		32	8	8	8	1	3	6

Player

.278

.264

.221

.251

.323

.200

.271

.244

.247

.198

.176

.269

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	1.1	4	5	4	1	0	36
L. MoralesSP	4.2	4	3	2	1	5	87
G. HartliebRP	2.0	5	3	3	0	1	33
Team	8.0	13	11	9	2	6	156

Player

J. SpringsSP

1.1

L. MoralesSP

4.2

G. HartliebRP

2.0

Team

8.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.242	3	2	1	1	0	1	0
B. BuxtonCF	.264	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.293	5	0	3	3	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.212	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.243	5	2	3	1	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.258	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.323	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Lee3B	.247	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. KreidlerSS	.244	4	3	3	1	0	0	0
A. RodenRF	.219	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	11	13	8	0	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	5.2	2	1	1	1	5	72
C. SandsRP	0.1	3	5	5	1	0	28
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
T. AdamsRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	15
Team	9.0	8	8	8	3	6	147

Team

ATH

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIN vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.