Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+5MIN

MIN

42-46

HOU

43-46

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

29,179 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

HOU no-vig %

54.1%

open 52.6% · +1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+39.0pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

HOU

★ best

+1120DraftKings

edge +39.0pp · implied 15.9%

Book	MIN	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	+130	+1120★	+39.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.8± 2.7high
Joe RyanMIN
5.9± 2.4high
Peter LambertHOU
5.6± 2.2medium

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.6± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.5high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.1± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 3.0high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium
Taj BradleyMIN
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

HOU

.725

OPS

.720

▶

.735

.318

OBP

.318

.319

4.70

Runs / G

4.50

4.65

4.60

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.66

1.37

WHIP

1.31

1.38

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 8 · HOU 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	2	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	8
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Minnesota TwinsHouston Astros

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.291	5	1	3	2	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.251	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. Clemens1B	.241	5	1	1	3	1	0	2
J. BellDH	.244	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.211	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
V. CaratiniC	.239	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. KreidlerSS	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. GraySS	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.246	2	3	1	1	1	1	1
Team		34	8	8	8	3	6	12

Player

.291

.251

.241

.244

.211

.239

.279

.232

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	5.0	4	1	1	3	11	97
C. LawerysonRP	0.2	2	2	0	1	0	23
A. MorrisRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	17
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Y. GomezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	8	3	1	4	13	170

Player

5.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

170

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.233	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.319	4	0	3	0	0	1	0
I. Paredes3B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.223	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. DiazC	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. LoperfidoLF	.216	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
R. Delgado2B	.276	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.191	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.247	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		35	3	8	2	0	4	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ImaiSP	1.1	4	5	5	5	2	57
A. BlubaughRP	2.2	2	0	0	0	3	47
N. PearsonRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	28
M. UllolaSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	23
B. AbreuRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	34
Team	9.0	8	8	8	6	12	189

Team

MIN

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.