ATS form
30.0%
GB last 10 against the number
GB has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.
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Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
ARI
ARI
PregameFri, 8:00 PM EDT
GB
GB
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDrill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · GB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
ARI
league avg
GB
23.6
Pts / game
23.5
▶24.7
349
Yds / game
342
346
256
Pass yds / G
◀
225
226
93
Rush yds / G
117
▶120
0.9
TO / G
0.9
▶0.6
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)