ARI
1-2
GB
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
5 drives · 2 TD · 2 FG · 1 PuntTeam pages
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · GB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GB win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · live
G. Minshew II
ARI · #15 · QB
K. McCord
GB · #18 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveARI · top performer
Gardner Minshew II
· #15
7/9
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
GB · top performer
Kyle McCord
· #18
7/10
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 11pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/9 | 126 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 7/9 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 35 | 0 | 16 | |
| Team | 5 | 35 | 0 | 16 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 57 | 0 | 20 | |
| 1 | 41 | 1 | 41 | |
| 1 | 19 | 0 | 19 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| Team | 7 | 126 | 1 | 41 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 22 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 35 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 35 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/10 | 89 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 7/10 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 12 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 5 | 19 | 0 | 7 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 65 | 1 | 36 | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | -4 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 7 | 89 | 1 | 36 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 36 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 36 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55 | 55.0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 55 | 55.0 | 1 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
151
Total yds
108
35
Rush yds
19
0
TO
0
Team stats
ARI
Away
Stat
GB
Home
151
Total yards
108
35
Rushing yds
19
0
Turnovers
0
2-15
totalPenaltiesYards
1-5
8:31
possessionTime
7:23
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GB -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
36.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ARI-10451%GB-11654%3· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
ARI lead GB 10-9 (14:06 - 2nd). Gardner Minshew II led the way — 7/9 · 126 YDS · 1 TD · 155.8 QBR.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GB | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Betting line
GB -1.5·O/U 36.5·ARI -104/GB -116
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
36.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
GB vs ARI
Period scoring
ARI won 1 · GB won 0
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 43 plays
+3pp
−2pp
−1pp
−2pp
+2pp
+1pp
−3pp
−2pp
−2pp
−3pp
−2pp
+3pp
+5pp
−1pp
−2pp
+2pp
+1pp
−2pp
+4pp
−2pp
+3pp
+3pp
−4pp
−1.0pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
ARI
league avg
GB
23.6
Pts / game
23.5
▶24.7
349
Yds / game
342
346
256
Pass yds / G
225
226
93
Rush yds / G
117
▶120
0.9
TO / G
0.9
▶0.6