
WSH
1-1

BAL
2-0
NFL · Drive chart
14 drives · 3 TD · 1 FG · 1 Fum · 3 Miss · 5 PuntModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
WSH
league avg
BAL
20.5
Pts / game
23.5
▶24.4
331
Yds / game
342
▶349
196
Pass yds / G
225
193
135
Rush yds / G
117
▶157
1.1
TO / G
0.9
1.1
Team pages
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Umpire
Barry Anderson
Side Judge
Keith Washington
Umpire
Roy Ellison
Field Judge
Ryan Dickson
Down Judge
Danny Short
Line Judge
Tripp Sutter
Back Judge
Courtney Brown
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveA. Kaliakmanis
WSH · #16 · QB
J. Fagnano
BAL · #12 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveWSH · top performer

Athan Kaliakmanis
· #16
7/13
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
BAL · top performer

Joe Fagnano
· #12
17/24
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/13 | 45 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 7/13 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 5 | 15 | 0 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 7 | 45 | 0 | 17 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 47 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 48 | 27 | 0 | |
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 82 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Team | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 180 | 45.0 | 1 | |
| Team | 4 | 180 | 45.0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/24 | 145 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4/4 | 61 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 21/28 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 28 | 0 | 12 | |
| 5 | 25 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 14 | 0 | 14 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 17 | 68 | 1 | 14 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 54 | 1 | 25 | |
| 3 | 45 | 0 | 24 | |
| 3 | 22 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 21 | 1 | 11 | |
| 3 | 18 | 0 | 8 | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | 8 | |
| 2 | 13 | 0 | 7 | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 21 | 206 | 2 | 25 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 18 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 19 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/3 | 51 | 3/3 | 6 | |
| Team | 1/3 | 51 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 1 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
60
Total yds
274
15
Rush yds
68
1
TO
0
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
BAL
Home
60
Total yards
274
15
Rushing yds
68
1
Turnovers
0
4-38
totalPenaltiesYards
4-35
8:00
possessionTime
22:00
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BAL -4.5
Between 3 and 7
0.5pt· 6.2h
Total
34.5
Defensive · -12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
6· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
-0.5 since open
Total
34.5
-1.0 since open
How it's going
BAL lead WSH 24-0 (Halftime). Joe Fagnano led the way — 17/24 · 145 YDS · 1 TD · 100.2 QBR. BAL have outscored the other side 14-0 in the 1st quarter.
Win probability
BAL vs WSH
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL | 14 | 10 | 24 |
Period scoring
WSH won 0 · BAL won 2
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 94 plays
+3pp
+1pp
−2pp
−2pp
+4pp
+2pp
−0.9pp
+5pp
−3pp
BIG MOMENT
+10pp
−0.6pp
BIG MOMENT
+9pp
+2pp
+0.5pp
−0.6pp
+3pp
+2pp
+1pp
+0.6pp
+0.8pp
+1pp
+0.8pp
−0.9pp
−1pp
Betting line
BAL -4.5·O/U 34.5·WSH +158/BAL -190