Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at NYM?

The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 28, 2026

HOU

67-67

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

NYM

60-74

ATS/HOU -1.5O/U/8ML/HOU-130

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

NYM -0.9 vs HOU -1.5 margin

NYM brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

46.0%

open 46.8% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Hunter Brown

SP · #58

3-3

W-L

3.51

ERA

1.33

WHIP

74.1

Last 3 starts

vsATH-5.2 IP1 ER4 K

vsSEAL(3-3)5.0 IP2 ER5 K

@SFL(3-2)5.0 IP3 ER4 K

Home starter

Christian Scott

SP · #45

4-3

W-L

3.73

ERA

1.32

WHIP

111

89.1

Last 3 starts

@CHW-4.2 IP4 ER6 K

vsWSHW(4-3)6.1 IP3 ER7 K

@ATL-4.0 IP4 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money-130 / +108

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanHome · 3pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesNYM lead series 3-2-1

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-130Bet HOU ML↗-130Bet HOU ML↗

+108Bet NYM ML↗+108Bet NYM ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs HOU.

NYM is 5-5 recently; HOU is 4-6.

53.0%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM5–5-0.9
HOU4–6-1.5

Situational

NYM1d restB2B
HOU1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; HOU has 3.

Model angle

+7.1ppon NYM

NYM's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▲Model confidence+4.4pp
▲Travel burden+2.4pp

Players to watch

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Nolan McLean · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
Peter LambertHOU
5.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Peter Lambert · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.4.
Sean ManaeaNYM
5.1strikeouts · ±2.5
Sean Manaea · 5.1 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.3.

Line move

open +104→+108toward HOU

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like NYM.

NYM's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+7.1

pp edge · NYM

-0.82

CLV pp

4.7u · large

on NYM

57.8%

±6.3pp band

4.68u large — +9.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+11.8pp

+4.7pp post-cal

Kelly

18.7%

4.7% sized

Decimal

2.08

+9.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.1pp · NYM over HOU

▲
Model confidence90% conf
NYM clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
HOU is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+2.4pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
NYM's venue form is 11.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.8pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.8pp away from NYM since open.
-0.9pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
HOU has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.0%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at NYM?: The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.1pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

NYM

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +7.1pp · implied 46.0%

Book	HOU	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-130	+108★	+7.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.1high
Christian ScottNYM
6.2± 0.8medium
Peter LambertHOU
5.6± 2.3high

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 0.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.0± 1.9high
Luis Robert Jr.NYM
2.0± 2.6high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis TorrensNYM
0.7± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.6± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Robert StockNYM
3.4± 5.1low
Sean ManaeaNYM
2.6± 1.6high
Hunter BrownHOU
2.4± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

NYM

.729

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.317

OBP

◀

.318

.306

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.12

4.65

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.11

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.31

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelTossup

Fri, Aug 28

HOU

Astros

85-76

vs53.1%NYM

NYM★

Mets

70-86

HOU 46.9%win prob53.1% NYM

NYM 1489 · HOU 1517Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Houston Astros at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

NYM vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like NYM.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like NYM.