Recent form
7-3
LAD +0.9 vs ATL -1.1 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
LAD
LAD
80-52
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
ATL
ATL
77-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP · #18
12-7
W-L
2.61
ERA
0.90
WHIP
145
K
151.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPIT-6.1 IP2 ER9 K
vsMILW(12-7)6.0 IP1 ER9 K
@ARI-5.2 IP0 ER6 K
Home starter
Chris Sale
SP · #51
12-9
W-L
2.20
ERA
1.03
WHIP
166
K
135.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@MILL(12-9)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsARIL(12-8)6.0 IP1 ER9 K
@NYYL(12-7)6.0 IP3 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs LAD.
ATL is 4-6 recently; LAD is 7-3.
57.2%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL4–6-1.1
- LAD7–3+0.9
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- LAD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; LAD has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Chris SaleATL7.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chris Sale · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.2.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.4strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.4 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.3.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
ATL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-25LAD @ ATL3–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
50.1%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.23 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7± 2.4high
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.5high
- Tyler GlasnowLAD7.0± 3.1low
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.1± 1.0high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.2± 3.1high
- Michael Harris IIATL2.0± 1.6high
- Max MuncyLAD2.0± 2.1high
RBIs
- Max MuncyLAD0.7± 1.0high
- Mookie BettsLAD0.6± 0.9high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL2.9± 2.6high
- Eric LauerLAD2.6± 1.8high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.5± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
ATL
.761
OPS
◀
.718
.722
.335
OBP
◀
.318
.311
4.97
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.68
3.67
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.60
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.25
9.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelLean
Thu, Aug 27LAD
Dodgers
95-66
vs57.3%ATL
ATL★
Braves
91-66
LAD 42.7%win prob57.3% ATL
ATL 1534 · LAD 1557Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
