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Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO
72,471 attended
FINAL
SEA
0-2-1
99
KC
0-2-1
NFL · Drive chart
20 drives · 1 TD · 4 FG · 1 INT · 1 Fum · 2 Miss · 10 PuntPuntKC6p · 20y PuntSEA3p · 3y INTKC5p · 40y FGSEA7p · 64y FGKC8p · 36y FumSEA8p · 25y FGKC13p · 59y PuntSEA5p · 26y ½KC11p · 37y PuntSEA3p MissKC8p · 26y TDSEA10p · 52y PuntKC5p · 16y PuntSEA3p FGKC10p · 49y PuntSEA4p · 6y PuntKC3p · -1y PuntSEA3p · -2y PuntKC6p · 17y MissSEA8p · 46y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
SEA
league avg
KC
24.4
Pts / game
◀
23.5
21.5
362
Yds / game
◀
342
339
239
Pass yds / G
◀
225
232
123
Rush yds / G
◀
117
107
1.2
TO / G
0.9
▶0.8
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
