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NO
10Live2:47 - 1st
DAL
3Updated 8:47 PM ET
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
2:47 - 1ST+7NO
NO
0-2
103
DAL
2-0
NFL · Drive chart
4 drives · 1 TD · 2 FGFGNO7p · 47y FGDAL8p · 34y TDNO10p · 71y —DAL3p · 27y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
NO
league avg
DAL
16.6
Pts / game
23.5
▶28.2
331
Yds / game
342
▶404
237
Pass yds / G
225
▶279
94
Rush yds / G
117
▶126
1.2
TO / G
0.9
1.2
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
