Recent form
5-5
ATL -0.3 vs COL -1.3 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
COL
COL
52-81
PregameFri, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
78-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tomoyuki Sugano
SP · #11
12-7
W-L
4.96
ERA
1.32
WHIP
71
K
121.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCLEL(12-7)3.0 IP5 ER2 K
vsLADL(12-6)5.0 IP6 ER3 K
@ARIW(12-5)6.0 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Grant Holmes
SP · #66
8-5
W-L
3.64
ERA
1.32
WHIP
100
K
123.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHWW(8-5)6.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsARIL(7-5)3.2 IP6 ER3 K
@NYY-6.0 IP0 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 3-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs COL.
ATL enters on a 3-game win streak; COL is 3-7 over its last 10.
63.8%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL5–5-0.3
- COL3–7-1.3
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- COL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; COL has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chris Sale · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.2.
- Tyler MahleATL5.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.1.
- Bryce ElderATL4.6strikeouts · ±1.6
Bryce Elder · 4.6 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.9%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
69.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
71.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 102 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.5high
- Tyler MahleATL5.1± 2.4high
- Bryce ElderATL4.6± 1.6high
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.1± 1.0high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Michael Harris IIATL2.0± 1.6high
- Matt OlsonATL1.7± 1.4high
- Willi CastroCOL1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Brett SullivanCOL0.7± 1.2high
- Mickey MoniakCOL0.7± 1.1high
- Zac VeenCOL0.7± 1.1low
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.8± 2.2high
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.4± 3.3low
- Tomoyuki SuganoCOL3.3± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
ATL
.741
OPS
◀
.719
.725
.323
OBP
◀
.318
.312
4.78
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.69
5.52
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.61
1.52
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28COL
Rockies
58-95
vs63.8%ATL
ATL★
Braves
92-66
COL 36.2%win prob63.8% ATL
ATL 1538 · COL 1418Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsCubs8/28 - 2:20 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/28 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/28 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/28 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/28 - 8:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/28 - 8:15 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/28 - 9:38 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/28 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/28 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
