MLBTop 7
LAD 1@DET 1
+10.1pppeak
MLBTop 2
PIT 0@STL 0
-3.5pphigh
MLBBot 5
HOU 0@NYM 1
+33.0ppmedium
MLBTop 6
KC 1@CLE 0
-45.2ppmedium
MLBBot 4
BOS 0@NYY 1
+33.0ppmedium
MLBTop 4
TEX 1@MIL 2
+22.4ppmedium
MLBBot 1
CHW 4@MIN 3
-20.0ppmedium
MLBBot 5
SEA 1@TOR 3
+45.8pplow
MLBEnd 6
MIA 1@WSH 5
+52.0pplow
MLBBot 4
COL 0@ATL 4
+28.4pplow
MLBTop 6
SD 2@TB 7
+40.3pplow
WNBAHalftime
POR 52@ATL 38
WNBAHalftime
CON 43@IND 58
NFL5:01 - 1st
NO 3@DAL 3
NFL2:16 - 1st
ARI 3@GB 3
NFL5:36 - 1st
SEA 0@KC 0
NFL9:45 - 2nd
NYG 7@NYJ 6
NFLHalftime
HOU 3@CAR 6
NFL8:36 - 2nd
TB 0@JAX 3
NFL4:25 - 1st
CIN 3@PHI 0
NFL0:46 - 2nd
ATL 14@MIA 6
NFL3:20 - 3rd
WSH 3@BAL 34
TONIGHTGraded picks 0-1 so far (MLB 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sale (ATL): 9.0 IP · 11 K in a win over LAD — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Chourio (MIL): 4 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 5 H · 1 HR · 6 RBI in a win over TOR — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Optioned RHP Juan Burgos to Reno (PCL) (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Reinstated 3B Blaze Alexander from the 10-day IL (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Reinstated LHP José Suarez from the 15-day IL (Aug 28)
MLBTop 7
LAD 1@DET 1
+10.1pppeak
MLBTop 2
PIT 0@STL 0
-3.5pphigh
MLBBot 5
HOU 0@NYM 1
+33.0ppmedium
MLBTop 6
KC 1@CLE 0
-45.2ppmedium
MLBBot 4
BOS 0@NYY 1
+33.0ppmedium
MLBTop 4
TEX 1@MIL 2
+22.4ppmedium
MLBBot 1
CHW 4@MIN 3
-20.0ppmedium
MLBBot 5
SEA 1@TOR 3
+45.8pplow
MLBEnd 6
MIA 1@WSH 5
+52.0pplow
MLBBot 4
COL 0@ATL 4
+28.4pplow
MLBTop 6
SD 2@TB 7
+40.3pplow
WNBAHalftime
POR 52@ATL 38
WNBAHalftime
CON 43@IND 58
NFL5:01 - 1st
NO 3@DAL 3
NFL2:16 - 1st
ARI 3@GB 3
NFL5:36 - 1st
SEA 0@KC 0
NFL9:45 - 2nd
NYG 7@NYJ 6
NFLHalftime
HOU 3@CAR 6
NFL8:36 - 2nd
TB 0@JAX 3
NFL4:25 - 1st
CIN 3@PHI 0
NFL0:46 - 2nd
ATL 14@MIA 6
NFL3:20 - 3rd
WSH 3@BAL 34
TONIGHTGraded picks 0-1 so far (MLB 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sale (ATL): 9.0 IP · 11 K in a win over LAD — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Chourio (MIL): 4 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 5 H · 1 HR · 6 RBI in a win over TOR — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Optioned RHP Juan Burgos to Reno (PCL) (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Reinstated 3B Blaze Alexander from the 10-day IL (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Reinstated LHP José Suarez from the 15-day IL (Aug 28)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
  • NHL logo
  • NBA logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
NFL logoNFLHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersFantasyDraft '26LeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
HOU logo
HOU
3
LiveHalftime
CAR logo
CAR
6
Updated 8:38 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
HALFTIME+3CAR↑
HOU

HOU

0-2

3
6
CAR

CAR

2-1

NFL · Drive chart

15 drives · 3 FG · 3 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Downs · 6 Punt
  1. PuntHOU5p · 2y
  2. PuntCAR3p · 1y
  3. INTHOU6p · 22y
  4. DownsCAR8p · 26y
  5. PuntHOU3p · 3y
  6. PuntCAR5p · 30y
  7. PuntHOU3p · 5y
  8. INTCAR3p · -2y
  9. FGHOU4p · 8y
  10. PuntCAR6p · 18y
  11. FumHOU4p · 17y
  12. FGCAR7p · 22y
  13. INTHOU4p · 25y
  14. FGCAR7p · 30y
  15. ½HOU1p · 6y
Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props

↳ Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Fantasy football
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Calibration Grade
  • Free tools & calculators
  • Matchup Predictor
  • Hedge calculator
  • Same-game parlay calculator
  • Odds converter
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Team pages

Houston TexansatCarolina Panthers

Elsewhere in the NFL

  • Cardinals3@Packers315:00 - 2nd
  • Giants7@Jets68:50 - 2nd
  • Buccaneers0@Jaguars35:10 - 2nd
  • Seahawks3@Chiefs02:54 - 1st
  • Bengals3@Eagles03:09 - 1st
  • Saints9@Cowboys33:06 - 1st
  • Falcons14@Dolphins60:03 - 2nd
  • Commanders3@Ravens341:10 - 3rd
  • Vikings@Broncos8/28 - 9:00 PM EDT

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

On the call · NFL

7 officials

Down Judge

Sarah Thomas

Referee

Brad Allen

Side Judge

Chad Hill

Field Judge

Anthony Flemming

Line Judge

Walter Flowers

Back Judge

Tyree Walton

Umpire

Marcus Woods

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 61-33
64%Last 30 · 300-166
Receipts →

QB · live passing line

ESPN leaders · live

B. Rypien

HOU · #16 · QB

41 yds5/8 · 0 TD · 1 INT

K. Trask

CAR · #14 · QB

49 yds7/13 · 0 TD · 1 INT

Recent plays · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. CAR · Pass Incompletion1st & 10 · no gainQ2
  2. CAR · Pass Reception2nd & 10 · +5 ydsQ2
  3. CAR · Timeout3rd & 5 · no gainQ2
  4. CAR · Pass Incompletion3rd & 5 · no gainQ2
  5. CAR · Field Goal Good4th & 5 · +37 ydsQ2
  6. HOU · Kickoff0th & goal · no gainQ2
  7. HOU · Rush1st & 10 · +6 ydsQ2
  8. HOU · End of Half0th & goal · no gainQ2
NFL·Fri, Aug 28·Halftime/VegasHOU -1.5
Updated 0s ago

HOU · top performer

HOU
Brett Rypien

Brett Rypien

· #16

41Pass yds

5/8

C/A

0

TD

1

INT

CAR · top performer

CAR
Kyle Trask

Kyle Trask

· #14

49Pass yds

7/13

C/A

0

TD

1

INT

Game flowHOU ↔ CAR

Recent swing: 8pp · —

NFL · Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers · live

NFL · Box score

Halftime

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Brett Rypien · #16
5/84101
Davis Mills · #10
3/71801
Team8/154502

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Owen Wright · #42
52506
Deuce Vaughn · #31
62107
Brett Rypien · #16
1000
Team124607

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Josh Kelly · #85
229020
Jared Wayne · #89
216011
Owen Wright · #42
1808
Louis Hansen · #47
1404
Deuce Vaughn · #31
1202
Sterling Shepard · #15O
1000
Zay Jones · #18
0000
Justin Watson · #84
0000
Lewis Bond · #82
0000
Layne Pryor · #49
0000
Team859020

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Brett Rypien · #16
110
Davis Mills · #10
101
Team211

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
George Odum · #36
6400
Aiden Fisher · #59
5300
Naquan Jones · #91
4101
Solomon Byrd · #50
3200
Jamal Hill · #56
3200
Jaylin Smith · #22
3100
Kaevon Merriweather · #21
2200
Kyonte Hamilton · #58
2200
Sabastian Harsh · #74
2111
Bryce Hall · #34
2100
Dominic Bailey · #73
2100
Caleb Johnson · #53
2000
Kayden McDonald · #93
2000
Brandon Codrington · #17D
1100
Alijah Huzzie · #28
1100
Lewis Bond · #82
1100
Derek Parish · #78
1000
Jarrett Kingston · #63
1000
Layne Pryor · #49
1000
Team442312

Interceptions

interceptions box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
George Odum · #36
1160
Team1160

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Treyvhon Saunders · #14
125250
Team125250

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Tremon Smith · #11
1440
Team1440

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn · #15S
1/1380/03
Team1/1380/03

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kai Kroeger · #38
313645.31
Team313645.31

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kyle Trask · #14
7/134901
Kenny Pickett · #12
5/84800
Team12/219101

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Anthony Tyus III · #34
61807
AJ Dillon · #28
61207
Kyle Trask · #14
1606
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
1606
Trevor Etienne · #23
1202
Team154407

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
David Moore · #83
334014
AJ Dillon · #28
320010
Ja'seem Reed · #86
117017
Feleipe Franks · #81
111011
Anthony Tyus III · #34
2605
John Metchie III · #13
1505
James Mitchell · #85
1404
Brycen Tremayne · #87
0000
Team1297017

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kyle Trask · #14
101
Cam Gill · #49
001
Team102

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Maema Njongmeta · #45
5500
Jared Harrison-Hunte · #94
3300
Trevin Wallace · #32
2211
Aaron Hall · #61
2200
Robert Rochell · #33
2100
Cam Jackson · #99
2100
Trevis Gipson · #52
1111
Isaiah Simmons · #27
1100
David Moore · #83
1100
Claudin Cherelus · #53
1100
Corey Thornton · #31
1100
DeVonta Smith · #43
1100
Cam Miller · #42
1100
Thomas Incoom · #48
1101
Lathan Ransom · #22
1000
Jackson Kuwatch · #46
1000
Team262223

Interceptions

interceptions box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Cam Miller · #42
1210
Lathan Ransom · #22
130
Team2240

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
John Metchie III · #13
124240
Team124240

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jimmy Horn Jr. · #15
2220
Team2220

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Ryan Fitzgerald · #10
2/2370/06
Team2/2370/06

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Sam Martin · #6
312240.72
Team312240.72

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

91

Total yds

135

46

Rush yds

44

3

TO

1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

91

Total yards

135

46

Rushing yds

44

3

Turnovers

1

1-5

totalPenaltiesYards

5-25

13:48

possessionTime

16:12

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Between — and 3

Total

37.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-12556%
CARCAR+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

How it's going

CAR lead HOU 6-3 (Halftime). Kyle Trask led the way — 7/13 · 49 YDS · 1 INT · 30.6 QBR.

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
HOU033
CAR066

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · CAR won 1

0
0

Q1

3
6

Q2

HOU
CAR

Play-by-play · 100 plays

event
  1. —

  2. —

    −4pp

  3. —

    −0.7pp

  4. —

    −0.9pp

  5. —

    +5pp

  6. —

    +2pp

  7. —

  8. —

  9. —

  10. —

    −1pp

  11. —

    −3pp

  12. —

    −0.5pp

  13. —

    −0.6pp

  14. —

  15. —

  16. —

  17. —

    −3pp

  18. —

  19. —

    +2pp

  20. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +8pp

  21. —

  22. —

    +1pp

  23. —

    −2pp

  24. —

    +3pp

  25. —

    −2pp

  26. —

  27. —

    +4pp

  28. —

    +0.6pp

  29. —

    −2pp

  30. —

    BIG MOMENT

    −5pp

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 37.5·HOU -125/CAR +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

37.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

CAR vs HOU

0255075100
Tale of the tape

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

HOU

HOU

league avg

CAR

CAR

20.1

Pts / game

23.5

20.1

342

Yds / game

◀

342

311

233

Pass yds / G

◀

225

194

109

Rush yds / G

117

▶

116

0.6

TO / G

◀

0.9

1.1