
HOU
0-2

CAR
2-1
NFL · Drive chart
15 drives · 3 FG · 3 INT · 1 Fum · 1 Downs · 6 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Team pages
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CAR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Down Judge
Sarah Thomas
Referee
Brad Allen
Side Judge
Chad Hill
Field Judge
Anthony Flemming
Line Judge
Walter Flowers
Back Judge
Tyree Walton
Umpire
Marcus Woods
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveB. Rypien
HOU · #16 · QB
K. Trask
CAR · #14 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveHOU · top performer

Brett Rypien
· #16
5/8
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
CAR · top performer

Kyle Trask
· #14
7/13
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
Recent swing: 8pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/8 | 41 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3/7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 8/15 | 45 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 25 | 0 | 6 | |
| 6 | 21 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12 | 46 | 0 | 7 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 29 | 0 | 20 | |
| 2 | 16 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8 | 59 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 44 | 23 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 38 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 38 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 136 | 45.3 | 1 | |
| Team | 3 | 136 | 45.3 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/13 | 49 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5/8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12/21 | 91 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 18 | 0 | 7 | |
| 6 | 12 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 15 | 44 | 0 | 7 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 34 | 0 | 14 | |
| 3 | 20 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12 | 97 | 0 | 17 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 26 | 22 | 2 | 3 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 0 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | 37 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Team | 2/2 | 37 | 0/0 | 6 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 2 | |
| Team | 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 2 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
91
Total yds
135
46
Rush yds
44
3
TO
1
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
CAR
Home
91
Total yards
135
46
Rushing yds
44
3
Turnovers
1
1-5
totalPenaltiesYards
5-25
13:48
possessionTime
16:12
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -1.5
Between — and 3
Total
37.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
CAR lead HOU 6-3 (Halftime). Kyle Trask led the way — 7/13 · 49 YDS · 1 INT · 30.6 QBR.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Period scoring
HOU won 0 · CAR won 1
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 100 plays
−4pp
−0.7pp
−0.9pp
+5pp
+2pp
−1pp
−3pp
−0.5pp
−0.6pp
−3pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
+8pp
+1pp
−2pp
+3pp
−2pp
+4pp
+0.6pp
−2pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
Betting line
HOU -1.5·O/U 37.5·HOU -125/CAR +104
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
37.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
CAR vs HOU
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
HOU
league avg
CAR
20.1
Pts / game
23.5
20.1
342
Yds / game
342
311
233
Pass yds / G
225
194
109
Rush yds / G
117
▶116
0.6
TO / G
0.9
1.1