Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
MIN
0Live15:00 - 2nd
DEN
10Updated 9:42 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
15:00 - 2ND+10DEN
MIN
1-1
010
DEN
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
4 drives · 1 TD · 1 FG · 1 PuntFGDEN8p · 40y PuntMIN3p · 4y TDDEN12p · 88y —MIN5p · 19y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
